The Coin Toss

Dear Wake and Bakers, Tonight, I sincerely intended to write about the Jersey Shore. My Saturday started at 5 am and I was hiking the Grand Tour trail in Hartshorne Woods by 6:15 . Sunrise greeted me at Belford Harbor on the Raritan Bay. The salty marshes, sunrise colors and calm waters filled my senses and my heart with awe and gratitude. This was going to be an old fashioned Wake and Bake tour of where the Jersey Shore begins. And then, just a short time ago, the phone tone rang during dessert, we became acutely aware of the momentous world changing event. Each generation usually has their own. In the short span of twenty five years we have experienced, yet again, a life changing moment. The tragedy of 9/11, the Covid tragedy and the contagion of mass hysteria, January 6th riot at the Capital steps and now the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities are the defining memories of more than one generation. This is not the day to speak of cherry glazed scones or beautiful trails. Musings, on my favorite part of the Jersey shore, will have to wait.

A friend of mine reminded me that when you toss a coin into the air and it turns heads fifty times in a row the odds do not change on the 51st toss. The odds remain the same at 50-50. No matter what you may think about President Trump he has maintained this posture regarding American military action in Iran. “No one knows what I am going to do until the last second”. That language left uncertainty on the table. No one knows how the next coin will fall on the table but we always knew that the President had a legitimate animus against the Iranian regime. His Intelligence services have told him that the Iranians were actively pursuing a path to assassinate him. In 2023 three people were indicted for plotting to kill Iranian activists in the United States. Iran is not a benign nation state.

Since 1979 the Islamist government of Iran has brutally subjugated its own people. They have ruthlessly killed more than 5000 of its own citizens to maintain their complete control over 90 million people. Those who say that the Iranian people should simply rise up and continue to protest are exceptionally naive. The most recent protest in 2022 resulted in more than 500 deaths and thousands of arrests. The country wide enforcers in Iran are called the Basij. Their numbers are estimated to be from 90,000 to over 1 million volunteer enforcers. Anyone who compares these people to any force in the United States is hopelessly naive and lacking in critical thinking. It is all about their own fears.

Many Americans are waking up this morning and wondering why we should be involved in this conflict between Israel and Iran. The same question could be asked about Ukraine and Russia. The answer is simple. Both countries are actively committed to destroying and controlling an independent nation state. Some may see this as a simple good versus evil discussion. If you are a biblical scholar the answer is obvious. However we live in modern times and the answers become obfuscated. The essential point to remember is that both Russia and Iran do not play by the same rules and seek power and hegemony in their regions of the world.

If anyone doubts the intentions of the Iranian regime, despite their proclamations, please remember the facts. Uranium enrichment for fuel at civil nuclear power plants is somewhere between 3 and 5 percent. Iran has far exceeded that level and is commonly believed to have enriched some of their stockpile to 60 percent. What purpose could this serve? The Islamic Republic of Iran has financed and employed proxies of destruction throughout the Middle East. Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah are committed to destroying the State of Israel. Iraq has its own share of Iranian backed militias. The Sunni tribes of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Oman have the same fears as the people of Israel.

The government of Iran has loudly proclaimed that it is their policy to destroy the State of Israel since 1979. This is more than propaganda to feed the acolytes within their own country. The current leader has stated “that Israel will not exist by 2040”. They have acted on that policy by arming the enemies of Israel. The leaders of Iran have aligned themselves with North Korea, Russia and China. When No.Korea began to build a nuclear power plant in Syria, when Assad was President, Israel destroyed that reactor and the world went on. Let us not forget that Assad killed over 500,000 of his own people, and the world, including President Obama, did nothing.

Each of these countries severely restricts their own citizens, punishes dissenting voices and are highly militaristic. They are not peaceful nations like France or Canada or Mexico. World peace has been guaranteed by the strength of the American military for the last 75 years. Anytime we pull back from that engagement the world becomes more dangerous. We stayed in Afghanistan for twenty years building freedom and hope for the women and children. When the Biden administration retreated the innocents were hurled back into the Middle Ages. Where are the protests for those innocent people? Where were the protests for the innocent people in Syria?

Let me leave you today with a philosophical essay on the prophecy of Balaam by Shaul Magid on Israel and the dilemma of Schrodinger's cat. The name of Israel’s campaign against Iran is the Rising Lion. That is a direct reference to the biblical passage Numbers 23.20 which recounts the story of Balak and Balaam. Balak, a king of Moab, ordered Balaam to smite the Jews coming out of the land of Egypt. In the end Balaam refuses to attack the Jewish people and warns Balaam. 23.20-24. “Lo, a people that rises like a lion, Leaps up like the king of beasts, Rests not till it has feasted on its prey, And drunk the blood of the slain.” When you continue to say Death to Israel there is very little room for negotiation.

Schrodinger’s cat is a philosophical thought exercise. Inside a box is a cat and a poison. That poison can only be activated if you open the box. Israel and Iran’s nuclear ambitions are analogous to the cat and the poison. When the box is closed both entities can live inside the box without superimposing its will upon the other. If the box is opened, if Iran is to develop a nuclear device, then the cat, the state of Israel would most certainly die. If you are living in Israel or if you are the leader of Israel, or the United States, it would be irresponsible and inconceivable that you dismiss the prayers of “Death to Israel”, by a theocratic dictator, as propaganda. The world seems safer today. No one can predict where we will be in 2040. This action may increase the cycle of violence and it may lead to an era of peaceful coexistence. That knowledge is only held by a power greater than we find in our earthly existence. This is our coin toss.

Thank God for the USA

Am Yisrael Chai

Peace to Everyone..

May the innocent good people of Iran be freed from the insanity inside their own country.